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| − | Europe is lost in a maze, unable to find an exit.
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| − | Voters have changed all calculations. The people have spoken and in increasing numbers are expressing impatience with austerity.
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| − | Francois Hollande's victory in France has sent tremors across Europe. He has challenged the German script for managing the crisis. Austerity first, in his view, is failing.
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| − | It is likely that his campaign message contributed to the success of anti-austerity parties in Greece. If voters in France were resisting further spending cuts why should voters in Greece not do the same?
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| − | Chancellor Angela Merkel looks increasingly isolated. Even voters in North-Rhine Westphalia, the most heavily-populated German state, rejected her party in favour of the Social Democrats (SPD), who promised to go easy on cutting debt.
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| − | Here's the bind: Europe chose to tackle its debt crisis not just by cutting deficits but by adopting a pact that limits spending in the future. The Germans see it as essential discipline for the survival of the single currency; others see it as a dangerous straitjacket.
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| − | What had not been envisaged was how swiftly economies would decline. By the end of 2012 the Greek economy will have shrunk by 20% in five years. Italy is mired in recession. Spain will see its economy decline by 1.8% this year and could well remain in recession next year. Almost certainly it won't reach its target for cutting its deficit.
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| − | France will struggle too.
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| − | The renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz called Europe's debt strategy "suicidal".
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| − | If austerity is leading Europe into deep recession - some are saying it is reminiscent of the 1930s - then what is to be done?
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| − | For borrowing more to stimulate the economies would only deepen the debt crisis.
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| − | Hence the search for a growth strategy - but structural reforms take time to deliver and Europe does not have time.
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| − | Which brings us back to Greece. Anti-austerity parties believe that Greece is slowly being strangled economically. They want the terms of their bailout deal renegotiated.
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Última revisión de 14:23 14 may 2012
